JSF Circus Act – The Laughs Continue

In a previous post titled “JSF Circus Act – The Clowns Take the Stage,” I addressed recent disturbing developments in the already troubled Joint Strike Fighter program in which the Marine F-35B V/STOL (vertical/short takeoff & landing) variant has come under fire and faces an uncertain future.

First, let me be clear that I have great respect for the Commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen. James Amos, his stellar career and service to his country. That said, in my opinion there’s nothing disrespectful or unpatriotic about questioning the weapons system acquisition process or his role in it when the current status of the JSF program is compared with its mis-managed past and projected into the next stage.

This post focuses additional attention on the efforts of Gen. Amos the to deal with the possibility that the B variant might not survive while doing everything in his power to see that it does. He has reason to be nervous.

On January 6, SecDef Robert Gates announced that while the Navy and Air Force JSF versions are proceeding satisfactorily, he was putting the Marine Corps’ F-35B JSF on a two-year probation because of “significant testing problems which may lead to a redesign of the aircraft’s structure and propulsion, changes that could add yet more weight and more cost to an aircraft that has little capacity to absorb more of either.” In the Pentagon’s fiscal year 2012 budget request, Gates keyed on the technical and schedule hiccups with the Lockheed Martin airframe and Pratt & Whitney primary engine.

On March 8th, Amos told the Senate Armed Services Committee that in a few weeks he will give Gates a set of metrics that, if followed, may get the B-model off probation earlier than the two-year mark set. Amos told the committee the program is on “a good glide slope” regarding the aircraft’s weight, an issue that has plagued the F-35B’s development. “I’m optimistic,” about the program’s future, he said, and he believes the changes put in to the F-35B’s testing and oversight have the program “lined up for success.” Again, with respect to Gen. Amos, notice the buzz words.

To support that opinion, Amos pointed out that since January, the F-35B has carried out 140 percent of its scheduled flights, achieved 200 percent of its scheduled test points, and is conducting four to five times as many vertical landings as it did last year. He told lawmakers recently that he is closely monitoring development of his service’s variant and stressed that he believes the B model is “vital” to his service’s ability to conduct expeditionary operations. “During the next two years of F-35B scrutiny, I will be personally involved with the program and closely supervising it. Continued support and funding from Congress is of utmost importance.”

Under questioning from Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Amos again stressed his optimism about the aircraft’s progress. “It’s my hope that we can get off that (probation period) well before two years. And it’s my intent to, sometime this spring, offer to the Secretary of Defense information that he might consider as the threshold for getting the airplane off of probation and back into the regular mindset of production.”

Reed sought assurance that the aircraft has seen its last major schedule change and is “finally on track.”

Amos said the F-35B’s structural issues, bulkheads and weight gain, “are progressing well. I’m going to pay attention to the aircraft performance, how it’s doing in flight both in vertical and horizontal flight, the weight growth of the airplane, which in a vertical-landing airplane is very critical. Right now, we are on a good glide slope in weight growth, and they’re not going to add a pound that I’m not aware of to that airplane. We have to talk about it.” Amos added that engineering challenges and test performance are “on his radar.” Note again the aviator-tinged buzz words.

Navy Secretary Ray Mabus, testifying alongside Amos at the Capitol Hill budget hearing, described Amos as an F-35B “program officer” who “gets updates on a very frequent and very routine basis.”

“It’s at least my understanding . . . that the issues associated with the B version are engineering in nature,” Mabus said. “And the question is whether those engineering issues can be solved inside weight limits and inside financial boundaries, and that that is what we’re concentrating on.”

I should hope so, and pardon me, but those are “Well, duh” comments that offer nothing of substance.

Amos emphasized he believes the F-35B is vital for use on large-deck amphibious ships. “This is more than just the Marine Corps,” the general told Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). “If we lose the F-35B, there is no plan B for fixed-wing airplanes on the large-deck amphibs. Our nation’s capability to project power and influence in critical situations will be cut. So the F-35B is a requirement. I’m optimistic. What I’m seeing now is very encouraging.”

SASC Ranking Member John McCain (R-Ariz.) expressed frustration with the overall F-35 program and asked Amos for updates on “almost a monthly basis.”

“I hate to keep throwing around the word disgraceful, but the cost overruns and the delays have been unfortunately characteristic of a lot of our acquisitions problems and challenges over the past several years,” McCain said. “So, I know, Gen. Amos, you will keep us informed, but we don’t want to be surprised.”

It doesn’t take an expert to predict that McCain’s future will undoubtedly contain a few more F-35B “bolts from the blue.”

As a postscript to this topic, check out a comment on the previous JSF post received from a fellow fighter pilot. His point strikes at the very core of the lunacy, which is this: Marine Corps Aviation is dedicated first and foremost to close air support of Marines on the ground slugging it out with an enemy. The operative word in the last sentence is “close.” Eyeball-to-eyeball close. The F-35B’s stealth technology means absolutely nothing to a gunner who can see the airplane.

And that’s just the first of many factors mentioned in the comment that challenge the decision for the Marines to use the most expensive and complicated airframe and engine combination ever purchased for the US military as a weapons delivery platform for close air support.

Posted in Rants and Raves | Leave a comment

Impromptu Photo Op

Filled with type-A personalities, aviation is a world of competition on multiple levels. One of the most striking dividing lines is that between pilots of fixed-wing and rotary-wing flying machines, that is, airplanes and helicopters.

Any non-flyer knows full well what a wing is and that airplanes have them. Most non-flyers probably think that helicopters don’t have wings, but they’d be wrong. Each rotor blade develops lift with essentially the same principle the wing of an airplane uses. But the fundamental difference separating airplane and helicopter pilots into divergent universes is this: the former like it better when the wings stay put, and the latter want them moving really fast.

Airplane pilots love to toss barbs at chopper jockeys, like: “Helicopters don’t really fly. They just beat the air into submission.” And, “If something’s not broken on your helicopter, it’s about to.” And, “If the wings are traveling faster than the fuselage it has to be a helicopter . . . and therefore, unsafe.”

The chopper pilots I’ve known usually don’t rise to the bait. The reason for their silence is elementary: they know that what they do is harder, and while anyone can fly an airplane, it takes real men and women to keep the right side up a helicopter. To demonstrate this reality requires comparison of only two hypothetical examples.

First, if an airplane pilot takes a helicopter pilot who has never touched the controls of an airplane for a flight and says, “Wanna fly?” I predict they wouldn’t die in the next few seconds. The opposite scenario, however, puts the machine and both occupants in grave danger, and the reason can be illustrated as follows:

If flying an airplane can be compared to chewing gum and walking at the same time, flying a helicopter adds patting your head, rubbing your stomach, hopping on one foot and jumping over hurdles while balancing a full glass of water on the big toe of the other without spilling a single drop. At least that’s what it felt like to me on the one occasion I tried it.

All airplanes, by the way, have both fixed and rotary wings. Each blade of a propeller acts like a wing, but the lift it produces is called thrust because it acts toward the pointy end of the airplane rather than perpendicular to the wings. And if you didn’t already know or haven’t guessed it by now, let me assure you that each fan blade in a jet engine also acts like a wing. So you see, this aviation stuff is really simple. But I digress.

A good friend and fellow military veteran received the photos below from a Marine buddy and forwarded them to me as another example of the essential difference between fixed-wing and rotary-wing pilots. His introduction describes it well:

“These fixed-wing boys are something. Ever wonder why they are so carefree, jovial, and fun loving, contrasted to a chopper pilot’s deadly serious and earnest demeanor? Could it be, as one of our wise leaders told me, that jet pilots can eject?”

Very likely so, and here’s the forensic evidence of an impromptu photo op that proves it:

As requested, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot flies up to the back door of a C-130 for a photo op. He radios, “How much closer do you want me?”

They radio, “How much closer can you get?”

And he shows them . . .

The pilot radios, “Close enough?”

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Goodnight in the Cockpit

From news.travel.aol.com:

The cockpit of a commercial airplane has a variety of warning systems to help keep pilots out of unsafe situations. In many circumstances, visual and audible indicators will notify a pilot when he needs to take immediate action. Boeing is considering a new method: vibrating the pilot’s seat assembly.

Throughout a flight, pilots do numerous tasks that might not require instant action, but are needed to complete a flight. During longer flights, pilots might get distracted and miss warning indicators that advise them if an action is required, the seat inventors say.

Pilots are also prone to getting sleepy during extended flights. A recent survey conducted for the Norwegian public broadcaster NRK found that out of 389 pilots, 48% said they fell asleep “once” or “rarely” and 2% indicated they fall asleep “often.”

Recently, a Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) Boeing 737 pilot fell asleep mid-flight while the co-pilot was out of the cockpit. In November 2010 an Air India Boeing 737 crashed killing 158 people, which was blamed on a sleep-deprived pilot. [A previous post titled “Troubles in the Cockpit” addressed this accident.]

Boeing is trying to determine if an alert system that uses more than lights and sound could be more effective in keeping fatigued pilots awake during flight. Many aircraft are already designed to shake the control column if a stall is imminent. But with the new seat a pilot would actually feel a vibration thanks to a module mounted under his or her seat.

The Tactile Pilot Alert system patent filed by Boeing and co-authored by chief pilot Frank Santoni, states the vibrating seat would comprise of, “a tactile module that may be mountable to a seat assembly and which may include a vibrating unit and/or a probing unit.”

Presently, Boeing is not giving details on how the system might be used on future planes. “We’re studying the concept, but there are no plans to implement the technology right now,” Doug Alder Jr. with Boeing Communications told AOL Travel News.

I can attest to the fact from personal experience that flying airliners involves long hours of not doing much. Modern technology has created airplanes that with the exception of takeoff, can accomplish any normal required task without control input from the pilots. And by “control input,” I mean good old “stick and rudder” flying with hands and feet coordinated by the computer called the human brain.

For all but a very small percentage of the commercial flight hours spent in the cockpit, pilots serve as systems managers, and the vast majority of those hours is spent at cruise. Other than to monitor what’s going on, pilots are redundant to the automated tasks of maintaining altitude, speed, and course or heading. And the reality is that these hours can be incredibly mind-numbing.

That brings to mind the saying, “Flying airplanes consists of hours and hours of boredom interspersed with moments of stark terror.” Passengers don’t want to think about that, but they intuitively understand that when the terror arrives, they want a top-notch crew up front taking care of business. Think “Miracle on the Hudson.”

And then every once in awhile, something happens to give the flying public a look inside the cockpit that isn’t conducive to getting a “warm fuzzy” back in the cabin. You may remember this:

Northwest pilots overfly destination by 150 miles

Friday,  October 23, 2009 3:02 AM by Steve Karnowski, Associated Press

MINNEAPOLIS — The pilots of a Northwest Airlines jet failed to make radio contact with ground controllers for more than an hour and overflew their Minneapolis destination by 150 miles before discovering the mistake and turning around.The plane landed safely at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Wednesday evening, and no one was hurt.

But yesterday, federal officials began investigating whether pilot fatigue was a factor. Keith Holloway, a spokesman for the National Transportation Safety Board, said the agency does not know whether the crew fell asleep, calling that idea “speculative.”

Flight 188, an Airbus A320, was flying from San Diego to Minneapolis with 144 passengers and five crew members. The pilots dropped out of radio contact with controllers just before 7 p.m. CDT, when they were at 37,000 feet. The jet flew over the airport just before 8 p.m. and overshot it before communications were re-established at 8:14 p.m., the NTSB said. The pilots didn’t become aware of their situation until a flight attendant contacted them on the intercom, said a source familiar with the investigation.

The Federal Aviation Administration said the crew members told authorities they became distracted during a heated discussion over airline policy and lost track of their location.

This incident is a perfect example of pilots not taking care of business even in normal circumstances. How hard can this be? The airplane is on autopilot doing all the hard stuff, and other than the passive act of scanning the cockpit frequently to make sure everything is okay, all the crew has to do is listen up.

In this case, flying from California to Minnesota, the airliner would pass through a number of Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs), each with a discrete radio frequency for communication. Depending on the amount of traffic in the sector, which varies by location and time of day, the radio can be relatively silent or filled up with transmissons to the point of “not being able to get a word in edgewise.”

Pilots learn to “filter” what they hear over the radio. “American 246, turn right heading 090, descend to and maintain flight level 270” would not be “heard” by the Northwest crew because the transmission doesn’t directly apply to them. And if they are only one hour into the flight, they aren’t expecting to receive instructions to alter course or altitude unless other traffic or weather is a factor. The most likely transmission directed at them would be to change the radio to another frequency as they proceed through different control sectors and regions.

Departing San Diego, the Northwest flight would be directed to contact Los Angeles Center before passing 18,000 feet in the climb, and depending on their route of flight, Salt Lake, Denver, and finally Minneapolis Centers while en route. And within the geographical area controlled by each center, different sectors use different frequencies, so changing the radio is not an infrequent task.

It is, however, a simple one. “Northwest 188, contact Minneapolis on 134.85 good day” should be heard and immediately responded to. In this case, the crew not only failed to hear multiple radio transmissions directed to them, but ignored their planned routing programmed into the navigation system and coupled to the autopilot.

This is only speculation without access to the cockpit voice recorder transcript, but I don’t think the crew was telling the truth about not falling asleep. It’s one thing to be preoccupied with a heated discussion and not hear the radio, but to be awake and completely ignore what the airplane was doing is hard to accept as fact.

The flight plan being followed by the autopilot had no navigation fixes to the east of Minneapolis. I’ve never flown the Airbus A320, but my educated guess is that when this airplane reached the point that the autopilot didn’t know what to do next, it did what is was designed to do, maintain heading and altitude. This means that the crew was so engrossed in their conversation that the effects of their inattention began long before arriving overhead their destination.

Crews don’t “slam dunk” airliners during the descent to landing. From the average cruise altitude on a flight of 1500 miles, the “top of descent” for the Airbus would have been about 100 miles to the west of Minneapolis. They flew 150 miles east. To cruise for 250 miles while oblivious to the real world outside the cockpit is truly astonishing.

I have no idea if Boeing engineers had this incident in mind when they brainstormed the idea of a vibrating cockpit seat, but I wonder if they’ve ever heard of vibrating beds? I can hear it now, the last communication on the cockpit voice recorder between the captain and the first officer:

“You got any quarters?”

Posted in Single Ship | 1 Comment

America with a Badge and a Gun

The final paragraphs from Mark Steyn’s “Comment on Costs of America as World’s Policeman,” National Review Online, 3/23/2011:

“Or to put it another way: America picks up the tab for maintaining a global order that enables the rest of the planet to get rich selling stuff to Americans that Americans buy with borrowed money.

“Within a half-decade or so, American taxpayers will be spending more in interest payments on the US debt than on the Pentagon. And the portion of those interest payments that goes to Beijing will cover the entire cost of the Chinese military.

“Meanwhile, the Commies use the dough to buy up every useful bit of Africa plus resource-rich parts of Canada, Jamaica, Australia, etc. From the ChiComs’ point of view, if this is a unipolar world, what’s not to like?

“The question is: what does America get from it?”

I think they call it bankruptcy.

And I call it the quintessential farce.

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ABNA Aftermath – A Voice from Boot Hill

I didn’t make the quarter-finals in the Amazon Breakthrough Novel Award contest because my 5,000-word excerpt failed to convince two “Vine Voice” reviewers that it deserved to be counted in the top 25%. What follows might be considered by some readers to be nothing more than a whine-a-thon that attacks the contest rather than accept the verdict with grace and equanimity. If you would honor me with the opportunity to alter that perception, please read on.

While both reviewers thought the opening did a good job of introducing more questions than providing answers (which I assume is their way of saying that’s what a mystery should do), the negative comments included imagery that didn’t work well and “clunky” writing. It should come as no surprise that I don’t agree with those assessments, but I’m not the one tasked with evaluating it. Their opinions are what counts in the contest. I knew that when I entered, so any complaints about that are nothing more than sour grapes.

But how would you assess the review quality of the following comments?

“There wasn’t much dialogue, and it’s difficult to evaluate a novel without seeing more of it.”

I thought their job was to judge the excerpt, not the novel. But beyond that, this is a mystery/thriller, and a very common opening structure is to show initial events from the point-of-view (pov) of a bad guy and a victim before the main character “arrives on scene.” In this novel, one character is on a clandestine mission of nefarious intent, and the other is flying an airplane solo in bad weather while trying to land at a mountain airport at night. The first character is trying very hard not to have to talk to anyone, and the second only speaks periodically to an air traffic controller. Apparently, it’s the novel structure the reviewer didn’t care for and the resulting scarcity of dialogue rather than the quality of it.

“The author needs to reduce the numbers in the flight scene.”

One of this novel’s primary objectives is to put readers in the pilot’s seat, around which there are lots of numbers. Other readers have told me I do a good job of presenting technical data in the right proportion with “plain” language so that the flying scenes don’t read as if they are intended only for aviators. Apparently this reviewer didn’t agree, and I’d bet there aren’t any techno-thrillers on this reviewer’s bookshelf.

Okay, I can consider both of these comments as the result of pure chance. The contest offered only two categories, one devoted entirely to young adult novels, and the second to everything else, which represents a very large amount of diversity. I have no idea if Amazon attempted to match up reviewers with genres, and I can’t imagine that individual reviewers were equally knowledgeable and proficient at evaluating them all. Such is the writer’s life and there’s nothing I can do about that. The next comment, however, is a different beast altogether.

“The author didn’t provide any connection between the two characters, and that was confusing.”

Really. Tell you what, dear visitor to my blog, why don’t you be the judge? All I ask is that you trust me when I submit that what follows is an accurate narrative picture of the opening to Pilot Error.

About 2:47 a.m., a man carrying a suppressed pistol climbs an airport perimeter fence, sneaks past a security guard he doesn’t want to kill, and picks the lock on a door of a hangar belonging to Schiller Aviation. Once inside, he plants a padded mailer from a navigation chart provider and addressed to Larchmont Enterprises, LLC, in a box labeled with the registration number of an airplane, N924DP. After a near run-in with the guard, the man leaves without being detected and rushes off to a “rendezvous with someone else’s death.”

In the next chapter, a man named Larchmont is in a bulletproof Lincoln Town Car with a driver and a bodyguard carrying an assault rifle. Readers learn in a short flashback why he’s being so careful, including a bomb-sniffing dog to check out his private jet before takeoff. While waiting at Schiller Aviation, Larchmont sees a news report that proves he is the last man standing outside the White House who knows the details of a clandestine operation that if made public could bring down the president. It’s time to run for his life. At the jet, readers see an envelope from a navigation chart provider. Once Larchmont is airborne, they hear him talking to an air traffic controller using the call sign “N924DP.”

Okay, here’s my assessment. This novel is an aviation mystery. Mysteries have clues. It’s my job to play fair with readers and provide the clues so they aren’t too cryptic and readers have no chance to think, “Oh, now that’s important.” I think the opening pages more than adequately provide a connection between chapter one and two. If you agree with me, then consider this.

Contest entrants have to accept the role of chance in how their excerpts are assigned to Vine Voice Reviewers. They also have to accept that the reviewers are vetted by Amazon well enough to provide a reasonably fair evaluation of the excerpts. But what I think stretches the limit of acceptance is for a reviewer to apparently need footnotes to keep up with what’s going on. To contend that there’s no connection between the first two characters in my novel is, frankly, bogus.

They’re called clues for a reason.

And here’s an interesting postscript. Four days before learning that I had earned a gravestone in ABNA Boot Hill, my query and a writing sample received two agent requests for a full manuscript. At that moment, I had five queries out. It’s a very small sample in the total scheme of things, but a request rate of 40% ain’t bad.

If you stayed with me this far, thanks, and if you have any comments, please don’t hesitate to leave them.

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JSF Circus Act – The Clowns Take the Stage

As a former USAF fighter pilot with a personal vested interest in tactical aviation, there are times when the current system for providing new combat “rides” for aviators seems astonishingly inept, if not irreparably broken. Recent news only serves to highlight my concerns.

And let me make it clear at the outset that my use of the word “clown” is in no way intended to demean any particular individual mentioned in this post. This isn’t an attack on individuals, but a comment on the collective process, which I contend is laughable if it weren’t so pathetic.

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is a family of single-seat, single-engine, fifth generation multi-role fighters under development to perform ground attack, reconnaissance, and air defense missions with stealth capability. The F-35 has three models: the A is a conventional takeoff and landing variant (for the Air Force), the B is a vertical/short takeoff and landing variant (V/STOL, for the Marines), and the C is a carrier-based variant (for the Navy, in case that isn’t obvious enough). The program is being principally funded by the United States, with the United Kingdom and other partner governments providing additional funding. It is being designed and built by an aerospace industry team led by Lockheed Martin.

The United States intends to buy a total of 2,443 aircraft for an estimated $323 billion, making it the most expensive defense program ever. The United States Air Force budget data in 2010, along with other sources, projects the F-35 to have a flyaway cost that ranges between $89 million and $200 million over the planned production of F-35s, depending on the variant. Cost estimates have risen to $382 billion for 2,443 aircraft, at an average of $92 million each, which casts doubt on the actual number to be produced for the U.S.

One of the ongoing JSF controversies involves research and development on an alternate engine. I’ve addressed that issue in earlier posts and will not do so again here, except to say that the soaring expenditures associated with the alternate engine are only one of the reasons that in January, 2011, Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed the Pentagon’s frustration with the skyrocketing costs of the F-35 program. “The culture of endless money that has taken hold must be replaced by a culture of restraint.” Focusing his attention on the troubled V/STOL F-35B, Gates ordered “a two-year probation,” saying it “should be canceled” if corrections are unsuccessful.

Gates, however, has also unequivocally stated his support for the program. “Having a robust, large quantity of fifth generation tactical air fighters is something I view as a core requirement, and in this era of increasing budget constraints, my goal has been to ensure that core capabilities for all the services are protected. This has meant increasing development funding for the F-35, scaling back or cutting other programs that are not as essential, and intervening directly to get the program back on track, on budget, and on schedule.”

Certain private analysts claim that the whole F-35 program is becoming a money pit. “The incredibly unfortunate phrase ‘too big to fail’ applies to this aircraft more than any other defense program,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace industry analyst with the Teal Group.

For years, the Marines have taken the position that they wanted to operate an all “jump-jet” F-35 fleet off of both amphibious ships and aircraft carriers. But the newest clown-act scenario arrived on Tuesday, March 1 with the announcement by Marine Corps Commandant Gen. James Amos, that the Marines are going to buy F-35Cs in addition to their B-model jets. The purpose of this change, apparently, is to allow the Navy and Marines to continue keeping their squadrons integrated on Navy carriers, although eyebrows across Washington shot up about what this means for the B-model.

Amos has repeated that he is focused “like a microscope” on fixing the B, which has experienced the most troublesome development of the three variants. But the revelation that the Marines also will fly a few squadrons of Cs could be seen as a hedge against the possibility that the F-35B won’t survive DOD’s two-year “probation” as directed by SecDef Gates, and which Amos wants to end early, by the way.

Lt. Gen. George Trautman, deputy commandant for Marine aviation, told Inside the Navy in October that the Marines still wanted such a fleet but would wait until the B-model is tested aboard a carrier. Amos, however, said that the Marines would go ahead and buy some carrier variants before that happens. “That was the initial plan,” Amos said. “We’ve backed up just a little. We’ve always been fans of [tactical aircraft] integration. As the [Navy] secretary said, we have three squadrons right now on Navy carriers.”

“So we like that,” he continued. “It’s good for both our services in the naval force. But when we sent the requirement in for V/STOL aircraft, our hope was we would be able to someday fly those versions off of CVNs, naval aircraft carriers. That’s yet to be seen whether that will be possible, so in the meantime it would seem prudent that we would buy some number of C variants even early on so that we can begin to transition our force.” It would be a “partial number on the overall buy of the V/STOL,” he said. “That is our primary focus.” He did not give any specifics on how many carrier variants the Marines would procure and when this would happen.

Okay, so the Marines are taking an extensive look at tactical air integration across the fleet to determine the proper mix is of C’s for the Navy and Marine Corps. The goal is to ensure that Marines will fly off carriers in strike fighters as well as in vertical take-off and landing aircraft.

To grasp the underlying reasons for what is being called “TacAir Tension,” one needs to understand that today, Navy and Marine fighter pilots fly different versions of the F/A-18 Hornet, but the Navy’s E and F models and the Marines’ A and C models all take off and land using the catapults and arresting wires on Navy carriers. Sounds reasonable, doesn’t it? The Marines don’t have any carriers, so they use the Navy’s.

Now here’s the part that can only cause an outside observer to wonder what in the world are these people thinking?

We’re supposed to be on the same team. Inter-service rivalries and bickering should have long since gone the way of the buffalo, but get this: the F-35 has caused a long-running battle between naval aviators. Will the Navy permit the Marines to fly their B-models on aircraft carriers? If so, according to one contingent, why bother building 95,000-ton nuclear-powered behemoths when all the Navy really needs is big-deck amphibious ships?

Ohmigosh! Do you suppose the Navy is concerned about the possibility of a doomsday scenario in which F-35B operation off of carriers will eventually result in the death of the carrier? Horrors! And we know how these Navy guys are about their carriers. They have a right to be. But let’s get real. This is like a modern version of the domino theory, in which one event today is projected into the future with catastrophic results based on nothing but a group of folks asking, “What if?”

In this case, according to Amos at least, it appears a truce has been struck behind the scenes when he said, “That’s yet to be seen, whether that’s possible” to fly Bs on carriers. In the meantime, with the Marines buying Cs, the Navy and Marines will continue deploying squadrons side by side. Carriers are saved, the Marines keep their own tactical air, and harmony is preserved in the naval service. The American people, who are footing the bill for the massive and bottomless money pit known as the JSF, should get a nice, warm fuzzy to know that.

But there’s a catch. If the Marines buy Cs and their B-model can’t be salvaged, they’ll lose the ability to fly fast jets from “big-deck amphibs.” What does that mean, exactly, and why is it important?

A big-deck amphib is a warship suitable only for aircraft with V/STOL capability, which means helicopters and only one fast jet, the aging AV-8B Harrier. Existing big-deck amphibs also have a “well deck,” a hangar-like deck located at the waterline in the stern. Taking on water and flooding the well deck lowers the stern and allows boats and amphibious landing craft to dock within the ship. This facilitates moving cargo between the ship and smaller craft during amphibious operations.

The two America-class amphibs under construction, however, were not designed with well decks. This makes them suitable only as “Marine Corp aircraft carriers” to serve helicopters and V/STOL fast jets. But if the F-35B variant doesn’t survive probation, all Marine jump jet capability will disappear when the Harriers are retired, and these brand-new ships will be all dressed up for a party that isn’t going to happen.

Amos and the amphibious factions of Quantico want the next America-class amphib to get a well deck yesterday. That may happen, but the Navy says if it tried to change the designs of the two ships under construction to include a well deck now, it will cost years of delay and millions of extra dollars.

And, according to Amos, if the B-model can’t be saved, which he believes it can, at the moment there’s no plan for what to do.

Just what we wanted to hear. Another clown act has arrived at the big tent in the circus we call weapons systems acquisition.

Posted in Rants and Raves | 3 Comments

Wordfight at the ABNA Corral Ends in Boot Hill

This is where those of us who didn’t make it to the quarter-finals now reside.

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Query War Update – “You’ve Got Mail!”

In September of 2010 I had finally reached the point with Pilot Error that the most logical next step was to begin submitting to agents again. It had been about five years since my one and only request for a full manuscript had failed to gain representation after the agent read two versions and declined a third opportunity. Following that false start, I used a book doctor to help me refine the prose and the story. Finally convinced that the manuscript was as good as I could make it at this point in my writing “career,” I set my sights on sending out my first query before the end of the month.

It didn’t happen. I could say that life got in the way, but that wouldn’t be correct. Procrastination was the culprit. I steadfastly avoided looking at the querytracker.net link in my bookmarks bar until mid-November rolled around. This tactic conveniently pushed my effort up against the holidays, which are generally considered to be a poor season for submitting. With that excuse as my potion, I refilled the procrastination cup and drank heavily of the bitter brew.

The New Year put me back on the defensive. Agents should have returned to the rat race looking for the next blockbuster and I’ve got one right here. But no, I put it off and might still be doing that if not for my friend and fellow writer John Jones, who with one simple question lit a fire, of sorts, with, “Are you planning to enter this year’s Amazon contest?”

“The what?”

And the subsequent discussion led to the decision that yes, I’m going to look into it. Previous posts on ABNA have covered the submission process, so I won’t repeat any of that now. My purpose here is to ramble a bit on the writer’s journey from starting the first page of a novel to seeing it on the bookstore shelves.

Early in this struggle, I decided my goal was to steer for the tier-one on-ramp accessing the highway to publication, and that meant doing so with an agented submission. If that didn’t work out, I’d try the second tier (direct-to-publisher) and as a last resort one of the various forms of vanity or self-publication.

The ramp appeared to be very steep, to the point of needing a ladder to climb it. That led to thinking about the stages in the process as steps. And rather than bending my head way back and staring at the top way up there, I concentrated on the first step down there so it wouldn’t appear nearly so intimidating.

In this manner of conceptualizing the climbing journey, the steps are:

1. Complete the novel. If you haven’t tried it, ask anyone who has and they will likely tell you it’s one of the hardest things they’ve ever done.
2. Edit and polish the prose and the story into “submission quality.” There may be writers out there who can create a first draft that works, but for most, revising is essential.
3. Write a “query” letter. Most writers will tell you they’d rather hit themselves in the forehead with a hammer than write the cover letter that introduces their novel to an agent. It’s a topic worth its own post, but for now, suffice it to say that the ability to write an effective one isn’t a given simply because you’ve completed and revised a novel.
4. Write a synopsis. Condensing a story into a few pages effectively is another skill acquired through nothing less than hard work.
5. Develop a list of agents. In the Internet age, this has become relatively easy. Up-to-date information on agents is no further away than your computer screen, and specialized websites provide multiple ways to research their individual preferences and manage the process of submitting.
6. Query your agent list with whatever combination of letter, synopsis, and writing sample each one wants to see. This may take revising the query and/or writing sample to reach the point of getting requests for partial and full manuscripts so the novel has a chance to compete in the marketplace.
7. Secure representation by an agent. In my limited experience, all the research in the world can only bring you to the point of knocking on the door, and the agent who finally invites you in is the one who connects personally with your story. An agent who can mirror your excitement for the novel will have a much better chance than one who considers it as nothing more than a product.
8. Hold your breath while the agent presents your novel to acquisitions editors at publishing houses and secures a contract.
9. Continue holding your breath until you are certain that the marketing department at the publisher doesn’t override the editor’s decision to purchase the rights your novel.
10. Drink a bottle of Champagne (but climb down off the ladder before you do).

In September, 2010, I had both feet on rung #5 when acrophobia got to me, and it hadn’t abated by the time John mentioned the contest. After studying the rules, I realized that I had all three parts of the entry ready to go. My query became the pitch, the first 5000 words of the novel became the excerpt, and the novel became . . . well . . . the novel.

Announcement of the entrants who advanced to round two on February 22nd was a milestone day for me and this novel because it provided confirmation that my pitch could engage at least one Amazon editor, knowledgeable about writing, storytelling, and publishing, and who had no prior experience with either the query or the novel. Although not an agent, this editor wanted to see more based solely on the pitch, and that’s the only purpose of a query letter to an agent.

So, from query to pitch and back to query, the effectiveness of these 300 words was the confidence builder that eliminated any procrastination about rejoining the query wars. Between March 8th and 16th, I sent out eight queries. On the 15th, 16th, and 17th, I received one email form rejection each day.

Dealing with rejection is never easy. Every writer at the query stage has to find a response that doesn’t involve destructive behavior. My current tactic is to keep a tight rein on my tendency to fantasize about how cool it would be to get an agent and publish a novel. Part of that requires me not to care so much.

On Friday evening, March 18th, I’m working at my computer on querytracker.net preparing another submission when the “you’ve got mail” tone sounds. I glance down and see the notice that I’ve received a reply to one of my queries. At that point, my tender sensibilities had been somewhat abused by the three rejections, so I ignore it and continue working.

But I can’t avoid it forever, because once I decide a query is ready, my procedure is to prepare the email and stuff it into the draft folder. A day later, I’ll open it and take a fresh look for problems, the most insidious of which is that when sending out multiple queries without typing each one from scratch, it doesn’t take much inattention or carelessness to address a letter to Ms. so-and-so when the agent in question is Mr. such-and-such. That’s called “How to Make a Bad Impression in One Easy Lesson.”

At this moment, I have no choice but to bring up the email window to do that with the new query I’m working on. And there resting in the inbox, the reply to the first query I sent ten days prior. The moment of truth has arrived. There’s no way out now, so I open it and read that the agent wants to see a full manuscript.

The shock of this moment is magnified by two factors. First, it verifies what I’ve been hoping is the case, that my query has the ability to engage an agent’s interest. Second, it’s supposedly unusual for an agent’s initial request for additional material to be for a full manuscript. Once I peel myself off the ceiling, I begin preparing the reply, which has to include a two-page synopsis. The shortest one I have is about three pages. Time for some tightening.

On Saturday morning while I’m putting the finishing touches on the full submission, my email chimes with another query reply. I’m flying high at the moment, so why wait to take a look? I can take a rejection. It’s water off a duck’s back for me now, so I open it and read another request for a full.

At this moment my heart goes on holiday. I reach for the defibrillator I keep handy just for such occasions and get the old ticker pumping again. Five queries is a very small sample, but to have a request rate of 40% is exciting nonetheless . . .  even though it doesn’t last long. In response to a query sent the following Monday morning, I received a form rejection in about six hours, and that’s how quickly a request rate can lose percentage points. If you’re tracking the numbers, that is . . .

The good news is that the query process isn’t a sprint. Long-distance events are best handled with patience and perseverance. And in terms of the larger picture, I have both feet planted on step #6.

Two weeks ago I didn’t, and I can honestly report that the view is much better from here.

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Fukushima Frenzy – A Calm Approach

Unless you’ve been living in a news vacuum for the past few weeks, you can’t have missed the catastrophic news from Japan about earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear meltdowns. I’m not sure anyone could come up with a worse triad of disasters capable of instilling helplessness and fear in the human soul.

Without offering these numbers as precise values, it’s impossible for me to comprehend how so much earth can move so violently for over two minutes, create an undersea trench over 180 miles long, displace millions of tons of water with enough force to send a wave 30 feet high ashore to wipe the ground clean for up to 6 miles inland, move Japan 18 feet closer to North America, alter the earth’s movement around its own axis and change the measurement of time.

And then well before the shock of these events can even begin to abate, we are bombarded with news reports about the critical state of the Japanese nuclear power industry and the possibility of even more disasterous consequences in the aftermath of nature’s wrath. The problem with these dramatic predictions, however, is that most people who hear them can’t evaluate their scientific validity.

I read a letter to the editor in the Austin American-Statesman just this morning from a reader who scoffs (with profanity, according to him) about the reports urging calm because the situation is not as dire as it may appear.

I don’t know whom to believe, but I can decide who gets the majority of my credibility votes. And in the case of nuclear power, it won’t be just anyone.

A friend sent me what follows, and from this chair, the explanation has all the trappings of being reliable. I urge you to read it to the end and make up your own mind. It comes to us through a series of sources, which I have reproduced here exactly as I received them.

<http://theenergycollective.com/all/12315> Posted March 15, 2011 by Barry Brook <http://theenergycollective.com/user/48910>

Editors’ Note: this post was written by a person who knew of nuclear physics but was not a nuclear engineer nor physicist, but an economist. This content has now been edited for accuracy by the MIT scientific community. Below is an updated version of the original post written by Josef Oehmen <http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/>

This post originally appeared on Morgsatlarge. Members of the NSE community have edited the original post and will be monitoring and posting comments, updates, and new information. Please visit to learn more. Note that the title of the original blog does not reflect the views of the authors of the site. The authors have been monitoring the situation, and are presenting facts on the situation as they develop. The original article was adopted as the authors believed it provided a good starting point to provide a summary background on the events at the Fukushima plant.

We will have to cover some fundamentals, before we get into what is going on.

Construction of the Fukushima nuclear power plants

The plants at Fukushima are Boiling Water Reactors (BWR for short). A BWR produces electricity by boiling water, and spinning a a turbine with that steam. The nuclear fuel heats water, the water boils and creates steam, the steam then drives turbines that create the electricity, and the steam is then cooled and condensed back to water, and the water returns to be heated by the nuclear fuel. The reactor operates at about 285 °C.

The nuclear fuel is uranium oxide. Uranium oxide is a ceramic with a very high melting point of about 2800 °C. The fuel is manufactured in pellets (cylinders that are about 1 cm tall and 1 com in diameter). These pellets are then put into a long tube made of Zircaloy (an alloy of zirconium) with a failure temperature of 1200 °C (caused by the auto-catalytic oxidation of water), and sealed tight. This tube is called a fuel rod. These fuel rods are then put together to form assemblies, of which several hundred make up the reactor core.

The solid fuel pellet (a ceramic oxide matrix) is the first barrier that retains many of the radioactive fission products produced by the fission process.  The Zircaloy casing is the second barrier to release that separates the radioactive fuel from the rest of the reactor.

The core is then placed in the pressure vessel. The pressure vessel is a thick steel vessel that operates at a pressure of about 7 MPa (~1000 psi), and is designed to withstand the high pressures that may occur during an accident. The pressure vessel is the third barrier to radioactive material release.

The entire primary loop of the nuclear reactor – the pressure vessel, pipes, and pumps that contain the coolant (water) – are housed in the containment structure.  This structure is the fourth barrier to radioactive material release. The containment structure is a hermetically (air tight) sealed, very thick structure made of steel and concrete. This structure is designed, built and tested for one single purpose: To contain, indefinitely, a complete core meltdown. To aid in this purpose, a large, thick concrete structure is poured around the containment structure and is referred to as the secondary containment.

Both the main containment structure and the secondary containment structure are housed in the reactor building. The reactor building is an outer shell that is supposed to keep the weather out, but nothing in. (this is the part that was damaged in the explosions, but more to that later).

Fundamentals of nuclear reactions

The uranium fuel generates heat by neutron-induced nuclear fission. Uranium atoms are split into lighter atoms (aka fission products). This process generates heat and more neutrons (one of the particles that forms an atom). When one of these neutrons hits another uranium atom, that atom can split, generating more neutrons and so on. That is called the nuclear chain reaction. During normal, full-power operation, the neutron population in a core is stable (remains the same) and the reactor is in a critical state.

It is worth mentioning at this point that the nuclear fuel in a reactor can never cause a nuclear explosion like a nuclear bomb. At Chernobyl, the explosion was caused by excessive pressure buildup, hydrogen explosion and rupture of all structures, propelling molten core material into the environment.  Note that Chernobyl did not have a containment structure as a barrier to the environment. Why that did not and will not happen in Japan, is discussed further below.

In order to control the nuclear chain reaction, the reactor operators use control rods. The control rods are made of boron which absorbs neutrons.  During normal operation in a BWR, the control rods are used to maintain the chain reaction at a critical state. The control rods are also used to shut the reactor down from 100% power to about 7% power (residual or decay heat).

The residual heat is caused from the radioactive decay of fission products.  Radioactive decay is the process by which the fission products  stabilize themselves by emitting energy in the form of small particles (alpha, beta, gamma, neutron, etc.).  There is a multitude of fission products that are produced in a reactor, including cesium and iodine.  This residual heat decreases over time after the reactor is shutdown, and must be removed by cooling systems to prevent the fuel rod from overheating and failing as a barrier to radioactive release. Maintaining enough cooling to remove the decay heat in the reactor is the main challenge in the affected reactors in Japan right now.

It is important to note that many of these fission products decay (produce heat) extremely quickly, and become harmless by the time you spell “R-A-D-I-O-N-U-C-L-I-D-E.”  Others decay more slowly, like some cesium, iodine, strontium, and argon.

What happened at Fukushima (as of March 12, 2011)

The following is a summary of the main facts. The earthquake that hit Japan was several times more powerful than the worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter scale works logarithmically; for example the difference between an 8.2 and the 8.9 that happened is 5 times, not 0.7).

When the earthquake hit, the nuclear reactors all automatically shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the control rods had been inserted into the core and the nuclear chain reaction stopped. At this point, the cooling system has to carry away the residual heat, about 7% of the full power heat load under normal operating conditions.

The earthquake destroyed the external power supply of the nuclear reactor. This is a challenging accident for a nuclear power plant, and is referred to as a “loss of offsite power.” The reactor and its backup systems are designed to handle this type of accident by including backup power systems to keep the coolant pumps working. Furthermore, since the power plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity by itself.

For the first hour, the first set of multiple emergency diesel power generators started and provided the electricity that was needed. However, when the tsunami arrived (a very rare and larger than anticipated tsunami) it flooded the diesel generators, causing them to fail.

One of the fundamental tenets of nuclear power plant design is “Defense in Depth.” This approach leads engineers to design a plant that can withstand severe catastrophes, even when several systems fail. A large tsunami that disables all the diesel generators at once is such a scenario, but the tsunami of March 11th was beyond all expectations. To mitigate such an event, engineers designed an extra line of defense by putting everything into the containment structure (see above), that is designed to contain everything inside the structure.

When the diesel generators failed after the tsunami, the reactor operators switched to emergency battery power. The batteries were designed as one of the backup systems to provide power for cooling the core for 8 hours. And they did.

After 8 hours, the batteries ran out, and the residual heat could not be carried away any more.  At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency procedures that are in place for a “loss of cooling event.” These are procedural steps following the “Depth in Defense” approach. All of this, however shocking it seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an operator.

At this time people started talking about the possibility of core meltdown, because if cooling cannot be restored, the core will eventually melt (after several days), and will likely be contained in the containment. Note that the term “meltdown” has a vague definition. “Fuel failure” is a better term to describe the failure of the fuel rod barrier (Zircaloy).  This will occur before the fuel melts, and results from mechanical, chemical, or thermal failures (too much pressure, too much oxidation, or too hot).

However, melting was a long ways from happening and at this time, the primary goal was to manage the core while it was heating up, while ensuring that the fuel cladding remain intact and operational for as long as possible.

Because cooling the core is a priority, the reactor has a number of independent and diverse cooling systems (the reactor water cleanup system, the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, the standby liquid cooling system, and others that make up the emergency core cooling system). Which one(s) failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.

Since the operators lost most of their cooling capabilities due to the loss of power, they had to use whatever cooling system capacity they had to get rid of as much heat as possible. But as long as the heat production exceeds the heat removal capacity, the pressure starts increasing as more water boils into steam. The priority now is to maintain the integrity of the fuel rods by keeping the temperature below 1200°C, as well as keeping the pressure at a manageable level. In order to maintain the pressure of the system at a manageable level, steam (and other gases present in the reactor) have to be released from time to time. This process is important during an accident so the pressure does not exceed what the components can handle, so the reactor pressure vessel and the containment structure are designed with several pressure relief valves. So to protect the integrity of the vessel and containment, the operators started venting steam from time to time to control the pressure.

As mentioned previously, steam and other gases are vented.  Some of these gases are radioactive fission products, but they exist in small quantities. Therefore, when the operators started venting the system, some radioactive gases were released to the environment in a controlled manner (ie in small quantities through filters and scrubbers). While some of these gases are radioactive, they did not pose a significant risk to public safety to even the workers on site. This procedure is justified as its consequences are very low, especially when compared to the potential consequences of not venting and risking the containment structures’ integrity.

During this time, mobile generators were transported to the site and some power was restored.  However, more water was boiling off and being vented than was being added to the reactor, thus decreasing the cooling ability of the remaining cooling systems. At some stage during this venting process, the water level may have dropped below the top of the fuel rods.  Regardless, the temperature of some of the fuel rod cladding exceeded 1200 °C, initiating a reaction between the Zircaloy and water. This oxidizing reaction produces hydrogen gas, which mixes with the gas-steam mixture being vented.  This is a known and anticipated process, but the amount of hydrogen gas produced was unknown because the operators didn’t know the exact temperature of the fuel rods or the water level.

Since hydrogen gas is extremely combustible, when enough hydrogen gas is mixed with air, it reacts with oxygen. If there is enough hydrogen gas, it will react rapidly, producing an explosion. At some point during the venting process enough hydrogen gas built up inside the containment (there is no air in the containment), so when it was vented to the air an explosion occurred. The explosion took place outside of the containment, but inside and around the reactor building (which has no safety function).  Note that a subsequent and similar explosion occurred at the Unit 3 reactor. This explosion destroyed the top and some of the sides of the reactor building, but did not damage the containment structure or the pressure vessel. While this was not an anticipated event, it happened outside the containment and did not pose a risk to the plant’s safety structures.

Since some of the fuel rod cladding exceeded 1200 °C, some fuel damage occurred. The nuclear material itself was still intact, but the surrounding Zircaloy shell had started failing. At this time, some of the radioactive fission products (cesium, iodine, etc.) started to mix with the water and steam. It was reported that a small amount of cesium and iodine was measured in the steam that was released into the atmosphere.

Since the reactor’s cooling capability was limited, and the water inventory in the reactor was decreasing, engineers decided to inject sea water (mixed with boric acid – a neutron absorber) to ensure the rods remain covered with water.  Although the reactor had been shut down, boric acid is added as a conservative measure to ensure the reactor stays shut down.  Boric acid is also capable of trapping some of the remaining iodine in the water so that it cannot escape, however this trapping is not the primary function of the boric acid.

The water used in the cooling system is purified, demineralized water. The reason to use pure water is to limit the corrosion potential of the coolant water during normal operation. Injecting seawater will require more cleanup after the event, but provided cooling at the time.

This process decreased the temperature of the fuel rods to a non-damaging level. Because the reactor had been shut down a long time ago, the decay heat had decreased to a significantly lower level, so the pressure in the plant stabilized, and venting was no longer required.

Units 1 and 3 are currently in a stable condition according to TEPCO press releases, but the extent of the fuel damage is unknown.  That said, radiation levels at the Fukushima plant have fallen to 231 micro sieverts (23.1 millirem) as of 2:30 pm March 14th (local time).

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Query War Update – Pressing “Send”

My last post on this topic, “Query War Update – Agent List” published on October 8, 2010, seems to be ancient history. And in a way, it is. Looking back for an explanation as to why I’ve had nothing more to say on the matter, the simple reason is that I had nothing more to say on the matter. I can’t report on non-events.

My personal self-image as a take-charge kind of guy needs alteration when I find myself avoiding the QueryTracker.net in the bookmark bar of my browser. All it takes is a click and there I am, user name and password quivering in anticipation of getting back to work. But for months now, I’ve avoided doing that.

The underlying cause of my procrastination has been the uncertainty about the quality of my query letter and writing sample that make up the submission package desired by the vast majority of agents. If the query letter doesn’t do its job, the agent will never read the sample and auto-reject with a typical “Dear Author” form reply that strikes both the novice and experienced querier directly in the heart with a metal spike.

And the worst part, if there can be such a thing, is that you have no way of finding out where in the package the agent quit reading. Few if any agents at this stage of the writer-agent interaction will spend even a second explaining their reason(s) for rejecting you. Blind querying is terribly frustrating.

This roadblock on the highway to publication cannot be eliminated until a very significant event occurs: you get a request for either a partial or full manuscript. The moment that happens, you know, even if it’s only your first request and it represents the interest of only one agent, that you have an initial package with the potential to open the gateway to publication a little bit further.

That’s a tremendous confidence builder, and it’s also very dangerous to a writer’s psyche if you allow it to take over and fill your head with the fantasy that this is equivalent to obtaining representation by this agent. The road ahead is still very steep, and it’s not an easy climb.

For me, the turning point arrived when I decided to enter the 2011 Amazon Breakthrough Novel Award contest. The 300-word “Pitch” to be judged in Round One essentially served the same purpose as a query letter to an agent, so I used my latest version of the query to write it. And when I advanced to Round Two, I knew something had just changed for the better.

Although not an agent, an Amazon editor, knowledgeable about writing and publishing and selling books, and who had never seen a word of my previous attempts at queries, found sufficient interest in the premise and mini-synopsis of my novel to advance me to Round Two. That moment was analogous to sending out a successful query letter without a writing sample, which is what some agents prefer.

“Ahoy, matey!” says I to meself. “Let’s turn this back into a query letter and try it out, har, har.”

So I re-entered the world of QueryTracker.com and forgot about trying to rank-order agents based upon the multitude of suggested criteria that in truth are probably all trumped by pure chance.

My plan is to send out three queries a week, one each on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. This tactic takes into account a perception among the query community that an agent’s Mondays are likely jammed with submissions received over the weekend, and Friday’s are cut short by the lure of the weekend. Mid-week is best, or so the theory goes.

There’s an old joke about why farmers and ranchers wear hats with curled brims. It’s from sticking their heads in mail boxes looking for government subsidy checks. I don’t know what the writer’s equivalent would be, maybe something to the effect of getting cross-eyed from staring at the email inbox.

But I do know that my current tactic borrows from that (in)famous TV pitchman named Ron Popeil hawking the Showtime Rotisserie and Grill: paraphrased, it’s “Send it and forget it.”

So that’s what I’m doing. As of this writing I’ve sent out eight queries, one at 2:32 pm on March 8, then another at 4:17 pm on March 9, then . . . but who’s keeping track of that stuff?

And I’m paying no attention to this, of course, but the results of ABNA Round Two will be announced on Tuesday. Tomorrow. Aviators call it sweating bullets. Writers call their shrinks.

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